Forex - Weekly outlook: 11.12 - 11.16
Before the semi-weekly mid-term election results came out, the market worried that the split Congress would block Trump from implementing a new round of fiscal stimulus and economic policies, which led to a slowdown in US economic growth, the Fed’s interest rate hike turned conservative, and the US dollar index continued to weaken. At the high point of 96.69, a round of downtrend was launched. After the news that the Democratic Party took the lead in taking the 218 seats in the House of Representatives on Wednesday, the bulls were forced to cover around 96.00 and then fell below this threshold. The lowest price in the day fell to 95.67. Tr
After the split of Congress, the results of the split were gradually digested, and the dollar rebounded. The Fed’s statement on Thursday and strong economic data on Friday (the producer price index PPI in October far exceeded expectations;
In November, the initial value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was optimistic. Continued to help the US dollar long to recover all lost ground in the first half of the week. The price rushed to the 97.02 line on Friday.
Unlike the US dollar, the non-US currency continued its decline after the Fed's resolution. The euro/dollar formed a “fake breakthrough and a true leak” on Wednesday. The exchange rate fell sharply from the high of 1.15. On Thursday, due to the content of Draghi’s speech, Concerns about financial stability, the exchange rate quickly fell below the 1.14 mark, and fell to the lowest level of 1.1313 on Friday, taking back all the profits in the first half of the week, accompanied by the possibility of the third test of the 1.13 mark for the third year;
GBP/USD turned from upside down on Wednesday, as of the end of Friday, the continued Brexit uncertainty, and the strength of the US dollar caused the exchange rate to fall below the 1.30 mark, the lowest set to 1.2956 line
The US dollar index continued to stay near the 97 mark touched last week. At the same time, non-US currencies were mixed, and no major data were released this trading day. The market is waiting for important data later this week and the central bank officials speak.
In response to the trend of the euro/dollar this week, the agency FXTechstrategy wrote a brief analysis, the content is as follows: the downward pressure on the euro, the target points to the 1.1300 mark, sharply weakened late last week.
On the downside, the initial support of the euro is looking at 1.1300. If it falls below this level, the target will point to 1.1250. If it falls below, it will look at the 1.1200 and 1.1150 levels respectively.
On the upside, the resistance is at the 1.1350 level. If it rises above this level, it will open the door to the 1.1400 mark. Further resistance will look at the 1.1450 and 1.1500 levels.
In general, the EUR/USD is facing further downward pressure in the medium term.
Monday, November 12
The European Conference on Banking and Finance, the largest conference in Europe, will feature more than 4,000 visitors and more than 20 professional conferences and social events.
US Vice President Mike Pence visited Japan until November 13.
In the first round of China-Canada economic and financial strategic dialogue, Chinese State Councilor Wang Yong and Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau and International Trade Diversification Minister Jim Carr will co-chair the dialogue; then China's Vice Minister of Finance Zou Jiayi will hold Press conference.
Sam Woods, deputy governor of the Bank of England and CEO of the Prudential Regulation Authority, will be involved in discussions about "London as the financial center of the future."
Tuesday, November 13
OPEC announced the monthly crude oil market report (the specific announcement time of the monthly report is to be determined, generally announced around 18-20 points in Beijing time).
In 2018, the FOMC voting committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Mary Daly gave a speech on the economic outlook.
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard spoke on artificial intelligence and new financial development.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari spoke at the 2018 Regional Economic Conference hosted by the Fed.
Wednesday, November 14
In 2018, the FOMC voting committee and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Mary Daly gave a speech.
The IEA announced the monthly crude oil market report.
Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles conducted a semi-annual testimony on the US House Financial Services Committee.
Jens Weidman, European Central Bank Governing Council and Governor of the Bank of Germany, delivered a speech at a conference.
Thursday, November 15
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended the audience Q&A session of the Global Perspective Speakers Series at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The National Bureau of Statistics released monthly reports on the sales prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities.
Randal Quarles, the Fed's financial regulator's vice president, made a semi-annual testimony on the US Senate Finance Committee with the theme "Fed's Financial System Regulation."
Silvana Tenreyro, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, delivered a speech at the Bank of England meeting.
Friday, November 16
EU Economic and Financial Affairs Committee (Budget) meeting.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell evaluated the economic recovery after Hurricane Harvey.
In 2018, the FOMC voting committee and the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, participated in the discussion of “Monetary Policy in the New Economy and Geopolitical Environment”.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi delivered a keynote speech at the European Banking Conference.
The German central bank governor Jens Weidman delivered a speech.