Forex - Weekly outlook: 06.04 - 06.08
With little data on the economic calendar, markets could focus more heavily on trade-related headlines in the coming week as President Donald Trump prepares to meet world leaders at the G7 summit in Canada.
There could be major developments on the trade front with China during the coming week, as well, and more clarity on whether revisions to the North American Free Trade Agreement can be concluded before a looming deadline.
Staying on the subject, market participants will focus on monthly trade figures out of the United States and China, as they seek to gauge if there has been any impact from the recent trade dispute between the world's two largest economies.
The dollar rose against a basket of peers on Friday, after a blowout jobs report suggested that the Federal Reserve remains on track to raise interest rates later this month and later this year.
The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs in May, above the expected a gain of 189,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to an 18-year low of 3.8%.
The U.S. Labor Department's report also showed solid wage gains, pointing to rapidly tightening labor market conditions, which could stir concerns about inflation.
Separately, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 58.7, up 1.4 points from April and a two-month high.
The upbeat data prompted market players to increase their bets on the number of Fed rate hikes through the end of the year, with the U.S. central bank now seen increasingly likely to raise rates three more times, in addition to the one they approved in March.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, ended up around 0.2% at 94.16, after hitting a high of 94.44.
The index was largely unchanged for the week, while it was up 2.4% in May.
The greenback strengthened almost 0.7% versus the Japanese yen last buying 109.55 (USD/JPY). For the week, the buck gained 0.2% on the yen.
Elsewhere, the euro slipped to $1.1657 (EUR/USD), but the single currency broke a six-week losing streak following a drop in Italian bond yields after a revived coalition deal between Italy's two anti-establishment parties reduced concerns of immediate elections.
Political turmoil in Italy earlier this week drove the euro to a 10-month low.
Meanwhile, the British pound strengthened against the dollar and the euro on Friday as data showed UK manufacturing growth picking up speed in May.
Monday, June 4
Australia is to publish data on retail sales.
The UK is to release data on construction sector activity.
Tuesday, June 5
China is to publish its Caixin services index.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
The UK is to produce data on service sector activity.
The U.S. Institute for Supply Management is to publish its non-manufacturing index.
Wednesday, June 6
Australia is to publish quarterly data on GDP.
The U.S. is to publish data on labor costs and productivity as well as the monthly international trade report.
Canada is to release trade data.
Thursday, June 7
Australia is release monthly trade data.
The UK is to release industry data on house price inflation.
The U.S. is to publish weekly data on jobless claims.
Friday, June 8
China is to report on trade figures.
Canada is to publish its monthly employment report.