Forex - Weekly outlook: 05.28 - 06.01
Investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. employment figures for signs of strength in the economy amid an ongoing debate over how many times the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.
Alongside the jobs data, markets will be focusing on a report on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation - the Federal Reserve's preferred metric for inflation.
This week's calendar also features the second estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter, which is expected to confirm the economy grew 2.3% in the first three months of the year.
Besides the data, traders will have to navigate other things that worry them in the coming week, such as fresh developments on trade negotiations between the U.S. and China as well as President Donald Trump's planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un slated for next month.
The dollar rose against a basket of peers on Friday to its highest since mid-November, after data showed new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in April.
The data suggested that business spending on equipment was picking up after slowing down at the end of the first quarter, boding well for second quarter growth prospects.
The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was up around 0.5% at 94.21, after hitting a high of 94.24, a level last seen on November 14.
The index has logged weekly gains in five of the last six weeks, boosted by its widening yield advantage over the other major currencies.
The probability of three more rate hikes by the end of this year, rather than two, decreased after the minutes of the Fed's May meeting released last week were seen as more dovish than markets had expected.
Elsewhere, the euro was on the backfoot, as rising bond yields in Italy triggered nervousness among investors, while brewing political instability in Spain also weighed on sentiment.
The single currency lost around 0.6% against the dollar to end at 1.1650 (EUR/USD), its lowest level since November 13. For the week, it slumped 1.1%, the sixth consecutive week of losses.
Meanwhile, the British pound traded near a five-month low of 1.3300 (GBP/USD) against the dollar on Friday, hindered by worries over Brexit and further signs of sustained weakness in Britain's economy.
Monday, May 28
Markets in the U.S. will remain closed for Memorial Day.
Tuesday, May 29
The U.S. Conference Board is to release data on consumer confidence.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is to publish its financial stability report.
Wednesday, May 30
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will speak at the BoJ-Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies annual conference, in Tokyo.
RBNZ Governor Adrin Orr is slated to testify about the Financial Stability Report before the Parliament Select Committee, in Wellington.
Australia is to release data on trade and building approvals.
In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary inflation data along with retail sales figures.
The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report as well as the second estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter.
The Bank of Canada is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement.
Thursday, May 31
China is to publish PMI data on manufacturing and service sector growth.
New Zealand is to publish business confidence data.
Australia is to release data on private capital expenditure.
The euro zone is to release a preliminary inflation estimate.
The U.S. is to publish data on personal income and spending, which includes the personal consumption expenditures inflation data, as well as reports on initial jobless claims and manufacturing activity in the Chicago region.
Canada is to publish data on economic growth.
Friday, June 1
China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing index.
The UK is to release data on manufacturing sector activity.
The U.S. is to round up the week with the nonfarm payrolls report for May, while the Institute for Supply Management is to publish its manufacturing index.